Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Hermit of the Murray River – “The Possum”

One of the most intriguing stories of the Australian bush is that of David James Jones – better known as “The Possum” who lived as a recluse along the Murray River for more than 50 years. 

 He lived outdoors for nearly all this time, travelling between several bush hideaways along the river and shunning nearly all human contact. From around 1928 until his death in 1982 he was almost a complete hermit, seldom conversing with anyone but presenting as a gentle eccentric who loved animals and performed anonymous acts of kindness to farmers in the area. These included fixing broken fences and crutching flyblown sheep, usually working at night while the farmers and their families slept. 

 From what is known of his earlier life, he was a New Zealand shearer who arrived in Australia around 1928 but could not find work in the local area around Wentworth. His solution to this problem was to walk away from society and he “went bush” - staying there for the rest of his life. 

 He lived off the land by fishing and trapping small game such as wallabies and foxes and dressed himself with discarded clothing left out for him by various station owners in the area. He lived in the wild, beautiful and primeval landscape along the Murray and Darling Rivers, particularly around the Wentworth and Renmark areas, constantly on the move between a series of hidden camps he set up along the way. 

 He travelled a lot at night, sometimes covering up to 50 kilometres at a stretch, always avoiding any townships in the area. He often swam back and forth across the Murray River, both to change camps and to avoid human contact. He reportedly slept in trees on occasion, leading to his nickname “The Possum”. 

 He had to endure the full gamut of Australian weather - blazing temperatures in summer, freezing conditions in winter, and all the floods, droughts and dust-storms that are all part of the climate of the area. In particular he had to negotiate the massive Murray River floods of 1956 when widespread inundation affected much of “Possum Country”, including Mannum, Mildura, Renmark and Wentworth.  


Flooding around Wentworth Hospital, 1956
(Courtesy of the Sunraysia Daily)

From the late 1970’s those who new of him became increasingly concerned for his welfare, as it became inevitable that his advancing age would collide with his primitive lifestyle. And that day arrived in 1982 when his body was found, alone in the bush, by two woodcutters near Ned’s Corner Station (about 70 km west of Mildura) on 4th August. It was estimated that he had died some three weeks before, about mid to late July. He was 81 years of age. 
 

Possum’s” funeral was held at nearby Wangumma Cemetery, close to his beloved Murray River and was attended by a large crowd of locals. 
(Courtesy of the Sunraysia Daily) 

On his simple tombstone is engraved: 

David James Jones 
“Possum” 1901-1982 
At rest where he roamed 

Living to that age under the harsh circumstances of his everyday life was quite remarkable. However it may have been more than old age that finally caused his death - the weather may well have been a factor. 

 For 1982 was an infamous year in the meteorological history of Australia. It saw the combined and in-phase influence of four major climate phenomena – El Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, Inter-Decadal Pacific Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode. 

Verdon-Kidd and Kiem (*) noted that in 1982 “all four modes were locked into their dry phase” resulting in one of the most intense droughts in Australia’s recorded history. This would eventually lead into the devastating Ash Wednesday bushfires of February 1983. 


The rainfall decile chart for 1982. For parts of Victoria it was the driest year on record. (Courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology) 

In times of drought clear skies are more frequent than normal and during the winter months over inland areas this means plummeting overnight temperatures and a direct consequence – that of frost - often follows. June and July 1982 were exceptionally cold months along the Murray River, as revealed by the temperature record from the Bureau of Meteorology’s weather station at Mildura Airport (AP). This station opened up in 1946, replacing the old site at the Mildura Post Office that operated between 1889 and 1949. The AP station has taken continuous records ever since, including rainfall, temperature, humidity and wind data. It is likely “The Possum” saw aircraft taking off and landing from the airport as he passed by along the Murray River, about 8 km to the north. 

The mean minimum temperature for June 1982 at Mildura AP was 2.2C, still the coldest June on record there. For July it was only 1.5C – the coldest July on record and indeed the coldest of any month so far recorded at Mildura AP. In June below zero minimum temperatures were reported on nine occasions and in July, seven. There were many cold frosty mornings across the general area during this time. On the 21st July the mercury fell to minus 4.0C – the coldest temperature ever recorded at Mildura Airport. 

It is possible, perhaps even likely, that this succession of extreme minima were too much for “The Possum”, and directly contributed to his death. 



 Today a life sized statue of “The Possum” stands at Fotherby Park, Wentworth, showing him in a characteristic pose - shielding his eyes as he looks across the Murray River and with a rope belt supporting his trousers. (Image: R. N. Whitaker) 

(*) Nature and causes of protracted droughts in southeast Australia: Comparison between the Federation, WWII, and Big Dry droughts Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd and Anthony S. Kiem GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, 2009 2. Rainfall deciles for 1982 (Bureau of Meteorology)

Monday, August 17, 2020

From Gods to Gigabytes - A Brief History of Weather Forecasting

"From Gods to Gigabytes - A Brief History of Weather Forecasting" - is now available in book form. For more details, and to order, contact weathersmart047@gmail.com


An Incredible Journey
Humanity’s effort to understand, and eventually predict the behaviour of our weather, has been one of the more remarkable odysseys of history. In many early civilisations, the state of the weather was believed to be a direct reflection of the mood of the Gods who could punish the misdeeds of society with storms, drought and flood. As a result elaborate systems of prayer and ritual were constructed in order to appease these Gods, sometimes involving human sacrifice. 

The first “weathermen” were usually high priests, witchdoctors or medicine men, whose duties involved not only “foretelling” the weather but also ensuring that the Gods were placated so as to guarantee favourable conditions into the future. The belief in the divine nature of weather continued across the millennia with hailstorms in mediaeval Europe, for example, sometimes being followed by the burning of witches. 

  Great Minds of Antiquity However even in ancient societies inquisitive minds were at work to try and identify “natural” causes that drove the weather. Such great intellects as Hippocrates, Aristotle and Pliny the Elder all produced treatises on the subject, offering many ideas that were later shown to be incorrect but nevertheless demonstrating a desire to look beyond the supernatural. Aristotle's treatise on th subject - Meteorologica - meaning a study of phenomena high in the air, was to give the modern science of meteorology its name.

Aristotle – believed that the weather was the result of natural forces rather than the moods of the Gods. (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge) 

  Weather Folklore Another source of progress in the “natural” understanding of weather came, not surprisingly, from the two main groups most intimately affected by it – farmers and mariners. Both noted correlations between the weather and cloud patterns, the nature of the wind and even changes in plant and wildlife behaviour. The mariners, in particular, forged ahead steadily, and by the mid 1700’s sailing boat captains had gathered a good working knowledge of the main wind regimes of our planet, giving them nautical names that persist today, such as the Roaring Forties, the Trade Winds and Doldrums. 
 























A formation of alto-cumulus - a "mackerel" sky. "Mare's tails and mackerel scales make tall ships take in their sails." (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge) 

 Whilst much of the “weather folklore” did not provide a lasting contribution to meteorology, it nevertheless formed a bridge between the Divine nature of weather and the Scientific Era that was to follow. 

  The Scientific Era During the latter half of the Middle Ages, several exciting developments were made that would help catapult meteorology into the world of science, where it at once took root and flourished. Instruments for measuring the state of the atmosphere were invented in the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries and were followed in quick time over the next 100 years by important discoveries on the chemical composition and temperature structure of the atmosphere. During this time the hygrometer was invented by Leonardo da Vinci (1452 – 1519), the thermometer by Galileo Galilei, (1564 – 1642), and the barometer by Evangelista Torricelli (1608 – 1647). Knowledge exploded during the 19th century with the discovery that large belts of high and low atmospheric pressure constantly circulated the globe, and the invention of the electric telegraph allowed this information to be transmitted faster than the pressure systems themselves, could move.






















Samuel Morse (1791 – 1872) American inventor of the electric telegraph and the Morse code (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge) 

 International cooperation in exchanging weather data was achieved in 1878 with the founding of the International Meteorological Organisation (IMO). The 20th century saw progress accelerate at an astounding rate, with national meteorological services forming around the world and the beginnings of “weather forecasting by mathematics” off to a solid start, following pioneering work by the English scientist Lewis Fry Richardson. The IMO evolved into the WMO - the World Meteorological Organisation in 1950, and soon attracted more than 170 member counties, all with the aim of generating and sharing weather information on a basis of global cooperation. 

The first meteorological satellite was launched in 1960, and was accompanied by a steady increase in weather observing stations and radar installations right around the world. 





















The first photograph transmitted by TIROS 1 from space - 1960 (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge) 

  Into The Future By the beginning of the 21st Century meteorology had evolved into a vast, complex interdisciplinary science, with weather forecasts being produced out to seven days ahead by massive supercomputers linked to a vast international array of automatic weather stations, meteorological satellites and floating oceanic buoys. Meteorology has become a glowing example of international cooperation with a developing science made available to all for the common good, sometimes within hostile political environments. If meteorologists ruled the world life could be rather dull but it would be peaceful. 


















New weather God - an SGI Altix supercomputer located in France is housed in a structure strangely reminiscent of a church (Image from Wikipedia Commons – click to enlarge)

The accuracy of weather forecasts has been steadily increasing, and with more computing power becoming available, together with an increasing density of meteorological observations, this increase is expected to continue well into the future. The long march from Gods to gigabytes has been one of the epic journeys of humanity and provides a fascinating insight both into the weather and the almost infinite inventiveness of the human mind. 


"From Gods to Gigabytes - A Brief History of Weather Forecasting" - is now available in book form. For more details, and to order, contact weathersmart047@gmail.com



Wednesday, January 31, 2018

The Brighton Tornados of 2 February 1918




In the afternoon of 2nd February 1918, severe thunderstorm activity associated with a low -pressure trough spawned a tornadic outbreak across Port Phillip Bay.  Two funnels moved from the water across the shoreline around Brighton Beach at around 4.45 pm and moved inland, producing widespread devastation across the surrounding area.

There were also reports of a third funnel, although eyewitness accounts were somewhat confusing because of the speed and complexity of the event.

Upon reaching the shoreline, the tornados unleashed their full fury across Brighton, where according to “The Age”, “hundreds of houses were unroofed, thousands of trees snapped or twisted in two, and fences levelled to the ground…. The damage done to property is computed at upwards of £100,000, and the “risk” was one of those not covered by insurance”.





The Methodist Church, 741 Hawthorn Road was largely wrecked in the storm.

“The Argus” reported that :
The moment it struck the mainland the air became thick with flying tiles, sheets
of galvanised iron, branches of trees, and pieces of wood. The wonder of it is that more people were not injured. Sheets of iron were flying through the air like birds, and there are authenticated cases of heavy beams being carried more than 100 yards before they fell to earth. Sheds were moved bodily. Chimneys fell through the roofs of houses and in many cases the houses themselves proved unable to stand against the terrific pressure of the wind and collapsed

Tragically, two people also lost their lives. At Point Ormond, three men were fishing from a boat that was capsized, and Gordon McLeod, “a window dresser from Sydney” drowned.

“The Brighton Southern Cross” reported
Young Frank Green, 14, of Chetwynd Street, North Melbourne was killed as a result of
the storm. He was with the ‘Sower’s Band Picnic’ at Brighton Beach and left with a friend
to go for a swim in the baths. They reached a fruit stall on the return journey at the height of the storm and the stall fell on the boy, severing the top of his head.

One of the tornados then continued inland, passing across Ormond, Garden Vale and Oakleigh, before finally weakening. There is little doubt that the death and damage toll would have been much higher in similar circumstances today, but back in 1918, these areas were much more sparsely settled.




The “Daily Weather Chart” for 2nd February 1918 that appeared in “The Age” two days later.



The following explanatory notes accompanied this chart:

“The chief interest, however centres in the shallow cyclonic depression shown immediately west of this State on Saturday morning. As this “low” drifted eastward over the metropolitan area it produced the quiet stagnant condition of the air conducive to the genesis of violent convectional currents and resulted in the formation of waterspouts over Port Phillip, which reached the shore in two points in Brighton, and travelled inland, apparently in violent tornadoes.” 

The Commonwealth Meteorologist, Mr. H. A. Hunt, issued a press statement which noted that “the atmospheric disturbance on Saturday was something in the nature of a tornado. …The disturbance, it was thought, was the a marked intensification of an ordinary Antarctic storm, with the thunder accompaniments and squalls……. The velocity must have been terrific – stronger than ever I have experienced in Victoria or NSW…”.6

A detailed report in “The Argus” on Monday 4th, included a map that depicted two main funnels, and described their movement.

“The starting points are given as Brighton Beach and Wellington Street, joining at Halifax Street, then swinging away to the north-east, so that Landcox and Ormond, to the north, and Jasper road, to the east are shown”.

This description indicated that there were two funnels moving inland from the Bay that appeared to amalgamate close to the intersection of Centre Road and Halifax Street. This article, plus another written in “The Southern Cross”, on 9th February,  indicated at least seven locations where the damage was notable:

* Brighton Beach Baths
* Corner of Albert and Wellington Streets
* Landcox Park
* Brighton Cemetery – Adam Lindsay Gordon’s headstone blown over
* “Billilla” - owned by the Weatherly family, 26 Halifax St
* Brighton Beach Railway station
* Methodist Church, 741 Hawthorn Road

These locations, together with later reports of the damage trail indicate a likely path taken by the funnels as shown here:



It was later estimated that the twisters had produced wind gusts of around 320 kph, and on the modern enhanced Fujita scale, this would correspond to a rating of EF4.

George Johnston, in his semi autobiographical book “My Brother Jack”, described the scene from the nearby shoreline

“….from the little jetty we saw the great storm which was to known as the Brighton Cyclone charging towards us across the bay in a whip of white horses  below a tumult of bruised purplish crepuscular cloud. Coming across the sea, the cloud would tear off in downward strips that would begin to gyrate madly, and scoop the harbour waters high in the air”. 8

A tornado relief fund was instituted soon after and was administered by the Mayor of Brighton, Lieutenant-Colonel J.J. Hanby. Donations were acknowledged publicly with the donors names printed in daily newspapers.


Sunday, January 18, 2015

Nigel de Grey - Codebreaker of World War One

Late in 1916 the Germans had planned to engage in unrestricted submarine warfare in an effort to cut most sea borne supplies to Great Britain and thereby ensure her defeat.
However there was the real risk that this plan would result in the United States joining the war on the side of Great Britain so Germany worked on a rather novel counter measure.

It was reasoned that if Mexico could be encouraged to join the German side, and declare war on America, then the US would be forced to commit a large slice of its military effort to defending its southern border, thereby weakening any European involvement.


Accordingly, on January 19th 1917, a diplomatic telegram in coded form was sent via Western Union from the German Foreign Secretary Arthur Zimmerman, to the German Ambassador in Mexico, Heinrich von Eckardt, offering Mexico a deal. The telegram as despatched consisted of irregular groups of 3, 4 and 5 numbers and used the top secret German cipher “13040”, that unbeknown to the Germans had been cracked by the British.


The telegram was secretly intercepted by the British and sent to “Room 40”, their top-secret code breaker group in the Admiralty.  Here it was brought to the attention of a shy and small man called Nigel de Grey, who was also one of the most brilliant code-breakers in the world at that time. De Grey was a quiet and self-effacing man nicknamed “The Door-mouse” by his colleagues. Working with two other rather unlikely men, Dilly Knox and the Reverend William Montgomery, a Presbyterian Minister, the trio succeeded in decoding the telegram. The result was political dynamite. It read:


The British presented this result to Edward Bell, Secretary of the US Embassy in Britain. Bell was outraged and angered, and soon after, the situation was reported to President Wilson, with the Americans regarding the incident as growing proof of German hostility.

This event, together with the sinking of the Lusitania in March 1915, resulting in the loss of many American lives, undoubtedly played a significant role in finally bringing the United States into Word War One in April 1917. This, in turn, virtually guaranteed the eventual defeat of Germany.

De Grey helped begin the great tradition of British code-breakers carried on with such distinction by Alan Turing during World War 2 some 25 years later. “Room 40” would evolve into the famous Bletchley Park in which de Grey was also to serve.


 Nigel de Grey - The "Door-mouse"

For more inside information on key events of World War One see

Friday, August 29, 2014

The Battle of Mons

The Battle of Mons was the baptism of fire of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) in the First World War. The BEF had arrived in France barely two weeks before and had been rapidly deployed with the French to try and arrest the onward march of the German Army.

The BEF was a much smaller Army than either the German or French forces and numbered some 80,000 men compared to the German strength of nearly double this at around 160,000 soldiers.

But there was a plus for the BEF troops - they were probably the best-trained Army in the field up until this stage with a special emphasis on markmanship with their standard issue infantry rifle – the Lee Enfield .303 - a particularly good and robust military rifle. Many of the BEF troops were capable of hitting an enemy soldier at a range of 500 metres or more.

On the early morning of 23rd August the Germans attacked the recently established British lines to the southeast of the Belgian city of Mons, beginning the operation with an artillery bombardment, followed by an infantry attack consisting of four battalions.


This first attack was repulsed by heavy and accurate British rifle and machine gun fire that inflicted terrible casualties on the German formations. A second attack followed, and the heavily outnumbered British were under increasing pressure. Particularly heroic actions by the machine gunners Lieutenant Maurice Dease and Private Sidney Godley delayed the Germans and both soldiers were awarded the Victoria Cross (Dease posthumously), the first recipients of the War.


A Vickers Machine gun crew in action  - First World War (Image from Wikipedia Commons)

However the inevitable happened and the British were forced to retreat, initially falling back to Landrecies on the 25th August, but then further retreating to the outskirts of Paris two weeks later.


Chaotic scenes in Landrecies extended to night-time battles as the British retreated.
(The Times History of the War Vol 1 p 466)

However the battle was seen in many ways as a victory for the BEF – although it was outnumbered by more than two one, it had inflicted far more casualties on the Germans than vise versa – and then conducted a tactical withdrawal in good order. This enabled the British forces to regroup and counter-attack at the Battle of the Marne in early September.

For further information on the First World War see

http://www.h100.tv/Top-50-Events-of-WW1

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Bondi Shark Attack

During 1928 and 1929, in a period just 9 months apart, two terrible shark attacks occurred at Bondi Beach, sending shock waves through the Sydney coastal communities.


Bondi Beach, circa 1930.

Saturday 14th April 1928 was an overcast and showery day and two young men Maxwell Steele, aged 19, and his younger brother Harry were on patrol duty as Bondi Surf Life Savers. At about 4 pm they decided to go for a swim and soon after Maxwell, whilst treading water only a short distance out, was seized by a large shark. The fish had him by the leg but he was able to free himself and make for the shore.

He survived the attack but tragically lost his leg.

Not so lucky was 14 year old Colin James Stewart who was attacked by a large shark in the same area on Saturday 12th January 1929. A newspaper account  of the 14th described the event:

After an amazing display of fortitude and courage, Colin James Stewart aged 14 years, who was attacked by a 10 ft shark in the surf at Bondi beach late on Saturday afternoon died in St. Vincent's Hospital at half past 7 o'clock yesterday morning.

Young Stewart, a fine type of lad and exceedingly well built received shocking injuries. The shark apparently made two vicious attacks on Stewart, and tore away a great portion of his back and a large piece of flesh from the boys right leg and thigh.

The boy was only up to his waist in water when he was attacked and as soon as it was realised that he had been bitten by a shark many other bathers, including members of the Bondi Surf Life Saving Club, went to his assistance.

Although badly mutilated, Stewart, while being assisted from the water, was able to tell his rescuers his name and address. Some time after admission to hospital he became semi conscious and remained in that state until he died, 13 hours after he was attacked by the shark.


Colin Stewart - attacked and killed by a shark at Bondi, 12th January 1929.

It was later revealed that another young man, Robert Kavanagh, had risked his life in pulling Stewart from the sharks jaws before others arrived to render assistance. He was later awarded the Albert Medal for bravery.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Working From Home

Traffic jams are one of the major social blights in the big cities of the developed - and developing - world.

The obvious issues are the resulting pollution, stress and time wasting familiar to all of those who undertake the daily work day commute in a big city.

Perhaps not so well known is the enormous cost of traffic congestion. In Australia the estimated cost of avoidable traffic congestion will be $20 billion for the year 2020, making this one of our major financial issues of the next decade. (See the graph below)

These costs reflect the extra travel time, fuel usage, travel time unreliability and pollution arising from congestion, compared to a situation of optimal traffic flow.

Traditionally Governments have reacted by building more roads and increasing public transport , with the latter the better solution. But the cost of either is immense.

Today we have a much cheaper and more easily implemented solution, and that is - working from home. The wonders of the e-mail and Internet have given us the necessary tools to bring this in.

If the various Governments were to give tax breaks to those companies who allowed their employees to work say one day a week from home, the potential is there for a massive reduction in traffic congestion, to the benefit of all. Other flow on effects such as reduction in insurance premiums would likely follow.

Costs to the Government in the form of taxation benefits would be well less than the costs of the escalating congestion and the concept of working from home is generally very popular with the electorate.

On the down side the Government would experience a drop in revenue from decreased fuel consumption, but this would be well balanced with reduced costs in road maintenance and public transport infrastructure.

In the past, successful nations, corporations and individuals are those who have been able to grasp and efficiently use the new technologies, and we have a perfect opportunity here to do just that, in effectively addressing the issue of traffic congestion.  e-mail and Internet show us the way.